Anomalous Atmospheric Flows and Blocking by Barry Saltzman, Roberto Benzi and Aksel C. Wiin-Nielsen

By Barry Saltzman, Roberto Benzi and Aksel C. Wiin-Nielsen (Eds.)

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It may, however, be used as a guide for numerical experiments. 1. The center value is u,, while the value one grid-size away is uo exp[- ( 1 / 1Ob)’] (22) The value b corresponding to Eq. 3. If b is smallerthan this value there is an initial tendency for a decrease of the center value. Such a case is shown in Fig. 25. After I day we observe that the maximum value has decreased and that the jet has become wider. 5 days it is observed that the two branches start to appear. 35 is shown in Fig. 9. In this case the jet continues to increase and become broader.

SP S3ITVPIONV IN31SISXI3d JO S313A3 %I7 *,p-os ‘OIJ quence. The negative center to the east of Japan on day - 3 in the negative analyses, however, is considerably more intense than its positive counterpart. This negative center intensifies and moves eastward to the key region by day 0; the second negative anomaly center over the East China Sea on day -2 follows a similar course, eventually merging with the main center after day 0 (not shown). The difference and corresponding t-test results (Fig.

1. Low-Pass Filtered Height Anomaly Patterns Figure 1 presents composite anomaly maps and the correspondingconfidence levels of the composite anomalies (estimated by a two-sided 2-test with a null hypothesis of zero mean) for 15 PAC positive anomaly cases at 2-day intervals from 4 days before onset (day - 4) to 6 days after onset (day 6). There is little evidence in these analyses of a precursor until a few days prior to onset; indeed, at day -4, only a limited region of the northern Soviet Union to the northwest of the Tibetan plateau has t-values exceeding the 99%confidence level.

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